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URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02095180

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, Different scenarios are simulated: absence of disease, absence of management, disease Comment citer ce document

L. Dallot, S. Bruchou, C. Thoyer, S. Jacquot, E. Soubeyrand et al., Step 1: Sobol's sensitivity indices of the 23 control parameters and 6 epidemiological parameters on the mean output of 30 stochastic replicates (?NPV, average net present value). ????SI?_1=0.64?. Parameters in black are kept in step 2; parameters in red are removed, Phytopathology, vol.109, issue.2, pp.1184-1197, 2019.

L. Rimbaud, S. Dallot, C. Bruchou, S. Thoyer, E. Jacquot et al., Management strategies. Surveillance, plantings and removals according to the reference management (French management in orchards; A), or to the combination of control parameters associated with best value (B) or the highest percentile (C) of the economic criterion ?NPV. In panels B and C, given its radius, the security zone may consist of the contaminated orchard only, Phytopathology, vol.109, issue.7, pp.1184-1197, 2019.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02095180

L. Rimbaud, S. Dallot, C. Bruchou, S. Thoyer, E. Jacquot et al., Improving management strategies of plant diseases using sequential sensitivity analyses, Comment citer ce, vol.109, issue.7, pp.1184-1197, 2019.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02095180

, Boxplots of Y (equivalent number of fully productive trees per hectare and per year, A), and NPV (net present value of all orchards of the landscape, B) after 30 years of sharka management. Different scenarios are simulated: absence of disease, absence of management, disease managed with the reference strategy (French management in orchards), or with economically improved management strategies identified through two different methods

. Fig and . S3, Step 1: Sobol's sensitivity indices of the 23 control parameters and 6 epidemiological parameters on the standard deviation of the stochastic replicates (A: ?Y, average number of fully productive trees; B: ?NPV, average net present value). Parameters in black are kept in step 2; parameters in red are removed

. Fig, . S4-;-l, S. Dallot, C. Bruchou, S. Thoyer et al., Step 1: Sobol's sensitivity indices of the 23 control parameters and 6 epidemiological parameters on the mean epidemiological output of the stochastic replicates (?Y, average number of fully productive trees). Parameters in black are kept in step 2; parameters in red are removed; parameters in green are the epidemiological parameters. Results on the economic output (average net present value, ?NPV) are presented in Fig. 2. document : Rimbaud, Phytopathology, vol.109, issue.7, pp.1184-1197, 2019.

. Fig and . S6, and distribution of each parameter for the highest and lowest percentiles (second and last columns) of the economic criterion (?NPV, average net present value) in the third sensitivity analysis. Improved values for each control parameter are indicated by red dots. The duration of young orchards (?y) is irrelevant in the best-value strategy because the observation frequency, Step 3: Five best values

L. Rimbaud, S. Dallot, C. Bruchou, S. Thoyer, E. Jacquot et al., Dynamics of annual prevalence (blue curves) and incidence (red curves) under different management strategies (French management in orchards, or economically improved strategies) and epidemic contexts (reference context, or harsher epidemics: half the duration of the expected latent period, ?exp, or doubled transmission coefficient, ?) in 100 simulations, Comment citer ce, vol.109, issue.7, pp.1184-1197, 2019.

. Fig, . S8-;-l, S. Dallot, C. Bruchou, S. Thoyer et al., Dynamics of observations, tree and orchard removals, under different management strategies (French management in orchards, or economically improved strategies) and epidemic contexts (reference context, or harsher epidemics: half the duration of the expected latent period, ?exp, or doubled transmission coefficient, ?) in 100 simulations. The dashed vertical line indicates the beginning of disease management. document : Rimbaud, Phytopathology, vol.109, issue.7, pp.1184-1197, 2019.

. Fig and . S9, Boxplots of Y (equivalent number of fully productive trees per hectare and per year in A and C), and NPV (net present value in B and D) after 30 years of management in harsher epidemic contexts (half the duration of the expected latent period, ?exp, in A and B; or doubled transmission coefficient, C and D)

, Different scenarios are simulated: absence of disease, absence of management, disease managed with the reference strategy (French management in orchards), or with economically improved management strategies identified through two different methods

. Fig and . S10, Boxplots of Y (equivalent number of fully productive trees per hectare and per year in A and C), and NPV (net present value in B and D) after 30 years of management in harsh epidemic contexts (half the duration of the expected latent period, ?exp, in A and B; or doubled transmission coefficient, ?, in C and D), with strategies specifically improved in these contexts. Different scenarios are simulated: absence of disease, absence of management, disease managed with the reference strategy (French management in orchards), or with economically improved management strategies identified through two different methods

. Fig and . S11, Dynamics of annual prevalence (blue curves) and incidence (red curves) under management strategies specifically improved in harsh epidemic contexts (half the duration of the expected latent period, ?exp, or doubled coefficient of transmission, ?) in 100 simulations. The dashed vertical line indicates the beginning of disease management